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 "source": "TikTok Creator Search Insights search popularity via TokConnect",
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 "calls": [
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        "popularity": 46285
       },
       {
        "date": "2026-09-29",
        "timestamp": 1790640000,
        "popularity": 176645
       },
       {
        "date": "2026-09-30",
        "timestamp": 1790726400,
        "popularity": 240026
       }
      ],
      "latest": 240026
     }
    ],
    "seriesCount": 1
   }
  }
 ],
 "derived": {
  "method": "Daily readings from 1 May 2026 (or the first non-zero day). 7-day average = mean of the day and the 6 days before it. Baseline = mean of the first 28 days (1 to 28 May) for topics with full history, or of the first 7 days for topics whose history starts in August. Signal = first day the 7-day average is at least 2 times the baseline. Peak = highest 7-day average. Fade = first day after the peak when the 7-day average is at or below half the peak. Lead time = days from signal to peak.",
  "perTopic": {
   "back to school outfits boys": {
    "historyStarts": "2026-05-01",
    "baselineDays": 28,
    "baseline": 240321,
    "firstDay7dAvgAtLeast2xBaseline": "2026-06-05",
    "peak7dAvg": 14721939,
    "peakDate": "2026-08-14",
    "peakSingleDay": 17599908,
    "peakSingleDayDate": "2026-08-14",
    "fadeBelowHalfPeak": "2026-08-23",
    "latest7dAvg": 214734,
    "wowRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 36,
     "higher14dLater": 36,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    },
    "twoXRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 39,
     "higher14dLater": 39,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    }
   },
   "Fall Room Decor": {
    "historyStarts": "2026-08-03",
    "baselineDays": 7,
    "baseline": 130816,
    "firstDay7dAvgAtLeast2xBaseline": "2026-08-15",
    "peak7dAvg": 855182,
    "peakDate": "2026-08-25",
    "peakSingleDay": 1111244,
    "peakSingleDayDate": "2026-08-25",
    "fadeBelowHalfPeak": "2026-09-16",
    "latest7dAvg": 267869,
    "wowRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 10,
     "higher14dLater": 4,
     "lower14dLater": 6
    },
    "twoXRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 0,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    }
   },
   "Group Halloween Costumes": {
    "historyStarts": "2026-08-03",
    "baselineDays": 7,
    "baseline": 81260,
    "firstDay7dAvgAtLeast2xBaseline": "2026-08-12",
    "peak7dAvg": 234693,
    "peakDate": "2026-09-26",
    "peakSingleDay": 621871,
    "peakSingleDayDate": "2026-08-11",
    "fadeBelowHalfPeak": null,
    "latest7dAvg": 215434,
    "wowRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 10,
     "higher14dLater": 8,
     "lower14dLater": 2
    },
    "twoXRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 5,
     "higher14dLater": 5,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    }
   },
   "Couples halloween costumes": {
    "historyStarts": "2026-08-03",
    "baselineDays": 7,
    "baseline": 55656,
    "firstDay7dAvgAtLeast2xBaseline": "2026-09-06",
    "peak7dAvg": 278972,
    "peakDate": "2026-09-28",
    "peakSingleDay": 314042,
    "peakSingleDayDate": "2026-09-26",
    "fadeBelowHalfPeak": null,
    "latest7dAvg": 262068,
    "wowRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 0,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    },
    "twoXRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 0,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    }
   },
   "Amazon Travel Must Haves": {
    "historyStarts": "2026-08-04",
    "baselineDays": 7,
    "baseline": 38609,
    "firstDay7dAvgAtLeast2xBaseline": "2026-08-28",
    "peak7dAvg": 106503,
    "peakDate": "2026-09-15",
    "peakSingleDay": 240026,
    "peakSingleDayDate": "2026-09-30",
    "fadeBelowHalfPeak": null,
    "latest7dAvg": 96741,
    "wowRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 7,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 7
    },
    "twoXRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 1,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 1
    }
   },
   "booktok ideas": {
    "historyStarts": "2026-05-01",
    "baselineDays": 28,
    "baseline": 330321,
    "firstDay7dAvgAtLeast2xBaseline": null,
    "peak7dAvg": 462848,
    "peakDate": "2026-06-04",
    "peakSingleDay": 708147,
    "peakSingleDayDate": "2026-07-31",
    "fadeBelowHalfPeak": "2026-09-25",
    "latest7dAvg": 207795,
    "wowRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 2,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 2
    },
    "twoXRule": {
     "flaggedDays": 0,
     "higher14dLater": 0,
     "lower14dLater": 0
    }
   }
  },
  "backToSchoolMilestones": {
   "baselineMay1to28": 240321,
   "signal2x": {
    "date": "2026-06-05",
    "avg7d": 563064,
    "daysBeforePeak": 70
   },
   "x5": {
    "date": "2026-06-14",
    "avg7d": 1279957
   },
   "x10": {
    "date": "2026-06-21",
    "avg7d": 2514221,
    "daysBeforePeak": 54,
    "daysAfterSignal": 16
   },
   "x20": {
    "date": "2026-06-28",
    "avg7d": 5008106
   },
   "peak": {
    "date": "2026-08-14",
    "avg7d": 14721939,
    "singleDay": 17599908
   },
   "belowHalfPeak": {
    "date": "2026-08-23",
    "avg7d": 6584963,
    "daysAfterPeak": 9
   },
   "latest": {
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "avg7d": 214734
   }
  },
  "leadTimesDays": {
   "back to school outfits boys": 70,
   "Fall Room Decor (history starts 3 Aug, so at least)": 10,
   "Couples halloween costumes (signal 6 Sep, still rising on 28 Sep; days so far)": 22,
   "Couples halloween: signal to 31 October": 55,
   "Amazon Travel Must Haves (signal 28 Aug, 7-day average high on 15 Sep)": 18,
   "Fall Room Decor peak to below half": 22,
   "Group Halloween Costumes (signal 12 Aug from a one-day spike of 621,871 on 11 Aug; highest 7-day average so far 26 Sep)": 45
  },
  "falseAlarmTests": {
   "weekOverWeek50pct": {
    "rule": "7-day average at least 1.5 times the 7-day average a week earlier; outcome = 7-day average 14 days later lower than on the flagged day",
    "flaggedDays": 65,
    "lower14dLater": 17,
    "flaggedDaysExcludingBackToSchool": 29,
    "lower14dLaterExcludingBackToSchool": 17
   },
   "twoXFourWeekBaseline": {
    "rule": "7-day average at least 2 times the mean of the 28 days before the current week; same outcome test",
    "flaggedDays": 45,
    "lower14dLater": 1,
    "flaggedDaysFromBackToSchool": 39
   }
  },
  "chart": {
   "file": "/graphics/predict-tiktok-trends/back-to-school-lead.svg",
   "plots": "7-day average of daily readings for 'back to school outfits boys', 7 May to 30 September 2026, with markers at 5 June (signal) and 14 August (peak)"
  },
  "aprilExamples": {
   "backToSchool7Apr": 0,
   "booktokIdeas18Apr": 1131459,
   "booktokIdeasHighestDayMayToSep": 708147
  }
 }
}